The dual requirements for ratification by at least 55 nations representing more than 55% of the global emissions was reached October 5th, 2016 shortly after the European Union voted for ratification. Ratification came less than 10 months after the signing of the Paris Agreement by 191 nations. The Agreement will go into effect on November 4th.
The Washington Post editorial cartoon by Toles. October 5, 2016. pg. A18.
The conclusion of the 21st Conference of the Parties left people in high spirits after the drafting of the Paris Agreement – the Plan Z for action on climate change. COP21 was largely regarded as a success; however it is down to COP22 held in Marrakech to decide how the Paris Agreement is to be put into action and steered away from becoming the next Kyoto Protocol.
First, some background on UK shale oil and hydraulic fracturing. The UK Government has been investigation fracking since 2011, this idea has been getting increasingly closer to reality over the past 2 years. The interest in fracking sparks from the need to increase national energy security through investing in onshore sources of oil and gas. Currently, gas makes up around 40% of our overall energy demand and this is expected to stay the same well beyond 2030.
Meeting in Paris, this past December, participants of the 21st meeting Convention of the Parties (COP 21) drafted an unprecedented agreement (the Paris Agreement) with the goal of limiting global warming by the end of the century to 2oC. On April 22nd, 2016, 174 nations signed the Agreement, a largely symbolic gesture indicating interest in participation at a later date; six nations have since signed, and the agreement will remain open for signatures for a year. To date, 22 nations, representing 1.09% of the global emissions, have officially committed, which is not nearly enough to meet the requirements for putting the Agreement in force. Ratification by a sufficient number of countries by the end of this year remains an unofficial goal.
This Earth Day marks the opening of the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21, December 2015) for signatures of the participating nations. Representatives of 168 countries are expected meet at the United Nations headquarters in New York for the signing ceremony. The next step will be for each country to deposit an “instrument of ratification”, or “consent to join”, with the UN Secretary General, prior to April 21, 2018. The ratification instrument will vary by country, but would typically be an act of a parliamentary body. The Agreement will take effect 30 days after the receipt of ratification instruments from 55 countries which represent 55% of global emissions.
On December 12, 2015, 196 nations unanimously agreed to work together toward a common goal; a goal established for the common good. They agreed to work cooperatively, sharing information, technologies and wealth. They agreed that each nation would establish and pursue their own path toward the common goal, and that they will jointly establish a framework and procedures to monitor and report the progress of each nation toward the goal. And, they agreed to meet every five years to review progress and intensify their individual, and collective, efforts with the ambition of striving toward an even more difficult goal.
One term that is highly unlikely to be discussed at COP21 is “carbon budget”, a term that identifies one of the simplest and most straightforward methods for apportioning and tracking carbon emissions. Budgets can be used determine a total amount of resource by identifying and quantifying the amount in various compartments. Such budgets as those produced by the U.S Department of Energy as part of the collaborative, international Global Climate Project can be used to trace the flow of carbon through the various components the global ecosystem. However a budget can also be used to allocate a resource total to various compartments, and it is this “allocation” type of budget that will not be discussed at COP21.
On the eve of COP21 the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology released a new assessment of impact of global warming on China. “The Third National Climate Change Assessment Report” which is currently only available in Chinese, is a 900 page report prepared by over 550 government appointed experts. The report is not a statement of government policy, but rather a summary of expected impacts, their national implications, and policy options.
The report presents a range of severe impacts upon China’s vast infrastructure, and presents China as being pressured by both the impacts of a changing climate and, as the worlds largest emitter of greenhouse gases, by international pressure to reduce emissions.
Representatives from 190 nations will assemble on November 30 in Paris for the annual UN Climate Change Conference. Scheduled to conclude on December 11th, the Conference is expected to attract over 25,000 official delegates and more than 50,000 participants, making it one of the largest conferences ever held in France.
With the impacts of a changing climate more apparent, hopes for a successful conclusion appear higher than for previous conferences. The ambitious goal for this conference is to achieve “a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2°C”. But, how realistic is this goal?
