On the eve of COP21 the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology released a new assessment of impact of global warming on China. “The Third National Climate Change Assessment Report” which is currently only available in Chinese, is a 900 page report prepared by over 550 government appointed experts. The report is not a statement of government policy, but rather a summary of expected impacts, their national implications, and policy options.
The report presents a range of severe impacts upon China’s vast infrastructure, and presents China as being pressured by both the impacts of a changing climate and, as the worlds largest emitter of greenhouse gases, by international pressure to reduce emissions.
China is among those nations that have based their pledge, or “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” (INDC), on units of economic growth, rather than a baseline year or any other absolute value. Accordingly China’s emissions will increase as it’s economy grows, only not quite as rapidly. China has pledged to lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from 2005 levels, increase the share of non-fossil fuels to 20%; and to achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions around 2030, or sooner. China has not pledged any action regarding other greenhouse gases. China’s carbon dioxide emission pledge is thus an un-quantifiable number since it is based on unknown economic growth.
According to a November 27th statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, President Xi Jinping when speaking at the opening of COP21 will maintain the position that China is a poor, growing nation and thus should not be subject to the the quantitative emission caps that apply to the developed nations.
The recent Assessment Report sharply differs with this policy, acknowledging that there will be increasing pressure on the developing nations to assume more responsibility for emission reductions, and suggesting that China develop more flexibility in negations with other nations regarding emission reductions. According to a recent New York Times article(1) the Report states that: “New arrangements in global climate governance are unavoidable,” and that “China should confront the vagueness of its role and change.”
The Assessment Report also recognizes that a changing climate is already impacting China and that greenhouse gases already emitted assure even greater future impacts. It reports how climate change is already having such impacts as thawing soils’ destabilizing the tracks of the 9-year old $4 billion Tibetan Railroad; melting glaciers, increasingly erratic water supplies and increased floods. The report highlights coastal impacts where sea levels are rising faster than the global average, threatening both population and business centers with increasing tidal inundation, and storm damage.
Apparently while the Report authors are in agreement with the reality and impacts of a changing climate, and with the fact that a changing climate could present major national security concerns, it does present some disagreement among the authors over such technical issues as when peak emissions will be obtained and the effectiveness of various policy options.
From the information available in English describing this National Assessment Report, it appears to be a frank, scientifically sound, and comprehensive assessment of China’s changing climate; and, a platform for the discussion of public policy options. We can hope that it receives the attention that it deserves, and are looking forward to a full English translation.
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1.) This post relied heavily on a November 29th New York Times by Chris Buckley, seen at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/30/world/asia/chinese-report-on-climate-change-depicts-somber-scenarios.html?emc=edit_tnt_20151129&nlid=49495680&tntemail0=y&_r=0
