Alaska – Tundra Fire, April 21, 2022
Is the health of our planet any better this Earth Day than it was on Earth Day 2021, are we doing more to protect it? By any standard the answer to both questions is a resounding no.
Where do we stand? This past year witnessed increasingly violent storms, unprecedented flooding, heat waves, wildfires and drought on every continent, with the exception of Antarctica. But even East Antarctica experienced an unprecedented heat wave last month (Autumn in the Southern Hemisphere) with temperatures measured up to 70oF above normal for several days, accompanied by exceptional snowfall and rain; conditions previously thought impossible. We are in the midst of a major extinction of the plant and animal species upon which we depend. Climate driven migration is introducing species to new physical locations (we call them invasive) where they displace native species and may introduce exotic disease throughout our ecosystems.
Where are we headed? The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)1 recently released several reports from 3 Working Groups that will be the basis for a major report to its 145 member governments due in September. The Working Group documents2 provide a comprehensive review of the Earth’s health and it’s ecosystems, with an emphasis on our rapidly changing climates
Working Group I focuses on the physical science of climate change. Its report was prepared by 234 authors from 65 countries who assessed 14,000 scientific publications and received 78, 000+ comments on their initial draft. Their findings are a sobering evaluation of where we are this Earth Day:
“Recent changes in the climate are widespread, rapid, and
intensifying, and unprecedented in thousands of years.”
“Unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to1.5°C will be beyond reach.”
“It is indisputable that human activities are causing climate change, making extreme climate events, including heat waves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, more frequent and severe.”
“Climate change is already affecting every region on Earth, in multiple ways.”
“The changes we experience will increase with further warming.”
“There’s no going back from some changes in the climate system. However, some changes could be slowed and others could be stopped by limiting warming.”
“To limit global warming, strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases are necessary. This would not only reduce the consequences of climate change but also improve air quality.”
The 278 authors of Working Group III (options for mitigating climate change) reviewed over 18,000 scientific papers and provided added clarity and specificity; giving us new deadlines, mainly:
“In the scenarios we assessed, limiting warming to around 1.5°C (2.7°F) requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030; at the same time, methane would also need to be reduced by about a third. Even if we do this, it is almost inevitable that we will temporarily exceed this temperature threshold but could return to below it by the end of the century.”
“The global temperature will stabilise when carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero. For 1.5°C (2.7°F), this means achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions globally in the early 2050s; for 2°C (3.6°F), it is in the early 2070s.”
“This assessment shows that limiting warming to around 2°C (3.6°F) still requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by a quarter by 2030.”
For many years the science has been warning us about where we are headed unless we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. We have, and many still do, denied the science, and have pushed any action down the road. We have now reached the point where we must take drastic, immediate action to reverse our greenhouse gas emissions in the next three years. We have already warmed the planet by 1.1oC making the 1.5oC goal precariously close.
Global reversal of greenhouse gas emissions in 3 years would be a herculean task under any circumstance and in today’s world seems highly improbable. Politics always takes priority over science; personal short-term interests always seem to have priority over long-term societal interests; and, we will not endure inconvenience for benefits we will not see. But if we do not take drastic action in the next 3 years future generations will soon see a planet becoming increasingly uninhabitable and a climate beyond control. It is now or never.
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1.) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of the United Nations, is charged with assessing and documenting climate change science and providing guidance documentation to its 145 member governments. A major product of the IPCC is a series of periodic “Assessment Reports”, historically produced at 6 – 7 year intervals, with each report emphasizing knowledge developed since the last report. The IPCC does not conduct any research, rather it reviews and synthesizes published research. Three “working groups” (WGI – science of climate change; WGII – adaptation and vulnerabilities; and WGIII – mitigation) prepare the reports that serve as the basis for the final Assessment Synthesis. Each Assessment is major, multi-year international project involving volunteer scientists from numerous countries. Assessment Report #6 is currently in preparation with the final working group reports having been approved this month, and a final Synthesis Report due in September.
2.) More information about the IPCC can be found at https://www.ipcc.ch, the multiple documents produced by each working group can also be downloaded at this site.
