Meeting in Paris, this past December, participants of the 21st meeting Convention of the Parties (COP 21) drafted an unprecedented agreement (the Paris Agreement) with the goal of limiting global warming by the end of the century to 2oC. On April 22nd, 2016, 174 nations signed the Agreement, a largely symbolic gesture indicating interest in participation at a later date; six nations have since signed, and the agreement will remain open for signatures for a year. To date, 22 nations, representing 1.09% of the global emissions, have officially committed, which is not nearly enough to meet the requirements for putting the Agreement in force. Ratification by a sufficient number of countries by the end of this year remains an unofficial goal.
Courtesy of the World Resources Institute
Participation in the Agreement requires two formal actions by the individual nations:
- The deposit of an “instrument of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession” with the United Nations. The Paris accord, takes the form of an “agreement”, rather than a treaty, in order to provide greater political latitude for participation. For example, in the United States a treaty would require a two thirds vote of approval by the U.S.. Senate, which would be impossible in the current political environment. An “agreement” however can be approved by the President.
- The deposit of a “Nationally Determined Contribution” (NDC) document, which defines the amount of emission reduction, in a given time, pledged by the participating country. Nations participating in COP 21 deposited “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” (INDC), which in most cases will now become the required NDC.
The Agreement will be implemented 30 days after 55 nations, representing 55% of the global emissions, meet the participation requirements. These two criteria were chosen to prevent either a handful of large nations, or a large group of smaller nations, from dominating the Agreement.
There is some concern that the momentum behind the April signing of the Agreement is being lost. In March, China and the US jointly announced intent to ratify as soon as possible this year (2016), with various predictions of the 55-nation/55% requirement being met by this past June. However, President Dutere of the Philippines recently announced that he would not honor any commitment by the Philippines; Brexit leaves the UK situation unsettled; agreements between the EU and its member states remain unresolved while Germany’s renewed interest in coal complicates matters; and, the US elections in November add uncertainty.
In the US, the Obama administration has taken the position that the President can approve the Agreement by “Executive Order”, a position that is disputed by the Republicans who maintain that the Agreement is actually a treaty requiring approval by two-thirds of the U.S.. Senate. If elected, Mr. Trump has pledged to overturn any Executive Order by President Obama. However, Section 28 of the Agreement, which is standard for UN treaties and agreements, means that any withdrawal would not be effective for approximately four years, the length of a presidential term, after the agreement is in effect. President Obama’s term ends at noon, January 20, 2017, thus if the 55-nation/55% requirement is not met 30 days prior to January 20, 2017, and if Mr. Trump is elected, it is virtually certain that the US will not be a participant in the Paris Agreement.
Meanwhile, global temperatures continue to set records, and the ability to achieve the end-of-century 2oC temperature increase goal of the Paris Agreement becomes increasingly improbable.
Additional Resources:
The official, up-to-date, record of signatories to the Agreement and of the nations that have ratified/approved/accepted:
PLEASE SCROLL DOWN TO VIEW LIST
The text of the Paris Agreement: https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_english_.pdf
The official Paris Agreement list of of emissions by country: https://unfccc.int/files/paris_agreement/application/pdf/10e.pdf
Climate Analytics ratification tracker: https://climateanalytics.org/hot-topics/ratification-tracker.html
Ratification FAQs, and the “Paris Agreement Tracker” used above, from the World Resources Institute: https://www.wri.org/faqs-about-how-paris-agreement-enters-force
