This Earth Day marks the opening of the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21, December 2015) for signatures of the participating nations. Representatives of 168 countries are expected meet at the United Nations headquarters in New York for the signing ceremony. The next step will be for each country to deposit an “instrument of ratification”, or “consent to join”, with the UN Secretary General, prior to April 21, 2018. The ratification instrument will vary by country, but would typically be an act of a parliamentary body. The Agreement will take effect 30 days after the receipt of ratification instruments from 55 countries which represent 55% of global emissions.
With the goal of limiting global temperature to 2oC (3.6oF) by the end of the century, and with the ambition of additionally limiting the temperature increase to 1.5oC over pre-industrial levels, the Agreement has the potential to become a major milestone in cooperation between the nations of Earth in meeting a common objective. However increasing signs of rapid climate change and recent research findings make it appear that obtaining the Agreement goals is highly unlikely.
2015 again set the record for being the hottest year since 1880, with 10 months also smashing monthly records. No doubt, a portion of the warming was due to the strong El Niño, but the months preceding the formation of the El Niño set records, just as the El Niño months did. The 2015 record temperatures were more than 1oC above pre-industrial levels, leaving only a 1oC permissible increase by 2100 if the Agreement goal is to be met. Since the Agreement expires in 2030, even the most drastic emission reductions are highly unlikely to achieve the 2oC goal, and there is now virtually no hope of achieving the 1.5oC target.
2014, 2015 and the first 3 months of 2016 didn’t just set records, they set new record by a record amount, perhaps indicating that the world is entering into a prolonged period of rapid global warming.
Since the December signing of the Paris Agreement a rapidly growing body of information is indicating that even if the 2oC goal is achieved, it would be woefully inadequate to prevent the worse consequences of climate change. The worlds corals are rapidly bleaching, with estimate of up to 93% bleaching and the survival of the great coral reefs doubtful. While in the far Arctic regions, the permafrost is melting at an unexpected, and unprecedented, rate releasing vast amounts of methane and other greenhouse gases. Arctic sea ice set a number of winter records, smallest ice coverage at the lowest levels since records were first kept.
Of great concern is the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets at rates formerly thought impossible. The possibility of any meaningful Antarctic ice melt has previously been thought to be so inconsequential that it was not included in many climate models, nor considered at COP21. Research published this year has detailed the mechanism for the recent calving of Antarctic ice into the ocean and shown that the rate of ice flow into the ocean will increase. Sea level increases that were formerly thought to require centuries may instead occur in decades, with global sea levels may rising several feet by, or in, the second half of the century.
The expectedly high release of fresh water into the northern Atlantic from the melting Greenland ice sheet has slowed the Gulf Stream by 15% to 20% causing a 5″ to 8″ sea level rise in locations along the eastern U.S. coast. This past April, at least 12% of the surface of the entire ice sheet was covered with more than a millimeter of water, a degree of melting never before seen. Changes to the North Atlantic currents could have long-term impacts upon the climates of northeastern North America and the United Kingdom.
Since last Earth Day the planet continued to experience ever increasing extreme weather, with violent storms, prolonged droughts, intense rainfalls, and record temperatures around the globe; impacting public health, economies, food and water supplies, and the environment upon which we depend.
Around the world, hundreds of coal-fired power plants are being developed or planned and the oil and gas industry is still investing billions of dollars in the search for new supplies of fossil fuels. The low price of gasoline has encouraged the purchase of large, gas guzzling vehicles, rather than energy efficient vehicles. Many of these low-mileage vehicles will still be on the road when the Paris Agreement expires in 2030. In the U.S. the Supreme Court has, at least temporarily, derailed the cornerstone (the Clean Power Act) of President Obama’s emission control plan due to a lawsuit by the Republican Governors of 26 states.
Independent analyses of the national pledges at COP21 have found that even if fully implemented, the pledges would not halt the increase of emissions, but only limit the rate at which emissions are increasing. Since most of the world is either in, or near, a global recession economic conditions will make many of the proposed reductions politically untenable, as may changing political leadership. For example, the participation of the United States in the Agreement will, in all probability be, determined by the November, 2016 elections.
On this Earth Day we have an urgent need to act, and many challenges to overcome. It is fitting that the Paris Climate Agreement signing ceremony takes place on this day, the symbolic importance of this unprecedented cooperative effort should not be underestimated. However, the actions pledged at the December Climate Conference in Paris, could well be characterized as “too little, too late”. What is missing from this Earth Day, and past Earth Days, is the spirit of public involvement and activism that marked the first Earth Day in 1970, and which resulted in the greatest wave of environmental legislation in U.S. history. Perhaps the greatest challenge facing us on this day, is the rekindling of that public spirit.
