On December 12, 2015, 196 nations unanimously agreed to work together toward a common goal; a goal established for the common good. They agreed to work cooperatively, sharing information, technologies and wealth. They agreed that each nation would establish and pursue their own path toward the common goal, and that they will jointly establish a framework and procedures to monitor and report the progress of each nation toward the goal. And, they agreed to meet every five years to review progress and intensify their individual, and collective, efforts with the ambition of striving toward an even more difficult goal.
Achievement of such an agreement has to judged a major success, no matter what the subject of the agreement. The labors of the France in hosting the 2 week conference under trying circumstances also must be deemed a success, as must be the years of advanced planning by many individuals around the world. But the actual Paris Agreement, is very much a mixed bag. As an accomplishment, it is a success, as a plan to meet the stated goal of limiting global warming to 2oC above pre-industrial levels, it is a failure. At best, it could be considered as one small step toward the action required to meet the 2oC goal.
Much remains to be done on the Agreement, which while adopted “by consensus” at COP21, is has not yet been signed and is thus not an official document. A few “tweaks” will be done to the language of the document, such as all references to “INDCs” (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution) will likely be changed to “NDCs”, and then a signing ceremony will be held at the New York headquarters of the United Nations on April 22nd. Once 55 nations, contributing 55% to the total global greenhouse gas emissions, sign the document it will be officially considered to be in effect.
While the terms of the Agreement will go into effect in 2020 and end in 2030 some anticipate that the document will be continually revised and extended. It is recognized that the COP21 NDCs will not be adequate to obtain the 2oC goal even if extended into the future. The optimistic view is that once nations start the reduction of their emissions, they will continue to do so, while the more pessimistic view is that after 2030 economic growth and population growth will result in a resumption of emission growth. The post 2030 uncertainty has resulted in estimates of end of century warming ranging from 3oC to 10oC, while a 3oC to 7oC range appears more reasonable – still far from the 2oC goal, especially considering that we have already reached 1oC of that goal.
The second weakness of the Agreement is the lack of independent monitoring and enforcement provisions. While the participating nations have agreed to develop monitoring protocols there is no assurance of success, and since the NDCs were voluntarily developed and submitted, enforcement is not feasible.
Thirdly, many of the NDCs are conditional, depending upon such conditions as the donation of funds, technology and economic conditions. Such NDCs most be considered tenuous at best.
Fourthly, the NDCs rely heavily upon the sequestration of carbon by forests to meet their pledges. This reliance ignores the fact that only young forests are effective in the sequestration of carbon, while mature forests are in carbon equilibrium and old forests are often carbon sources, as are many forest lands impacted by drought, fire, disease and and insect infestations resulting from a changing climate.
Many special interest groups and individuals will find additional “faults” and omissions in the Agreement. But all must admit that the COP21 Agreement represents far more progress that previously achieved. Granted, if all NDCs are fully implemented by 2030, they well start us on the path toward a 3oC increase, not the 2oC goal. But the good news is that the participants recognized this deficiency, and in an entirely unanticipated move, initiated by the small island nations, established an aspirational goal of 1.5oC. Despite its’ flaws, COP21 and the adopted Agreement must be considered a milestone success. Now the hard work begins.
