While the winter of 2009/2010 is not yet over, Europe has suffered from record low temperatures and heavy snowfalls, while the Mid-Atlantic United States has experienced record-braking snowfalls, the most recent crippling the Nation’s Capitol city of Washington, D.C. Meanwhile the Northeastern United States and Pacific Northwest have been experiencing temperatures warmer than usual and below normal precipitation, forcing Vancouver, B.C. to haul in snow for the winter Olympics. In spite of the fact that these conditions are exactly what is to be expected from climate change, the more severe winter conditions have brought out the climate deniers in full force. It is thus probably germane to repeat some of the fundamentals of global warming/climate change.
— Global warming causes climate change!
Heat is energy. The increase of the atmospheric greenhouse effect by the emission of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane and other gases; and, the direct addition of heat due to energy consumption increases the thermal content and energy of the planet. The increased thermal directly alters both the patterns and intensity of air currents in the atmosphere and the ocean currents.
— Weather is not climate!
Weather is a short-term, local condition, while climate is a long-term, regional descriptor. Just as we properly speak of the weather today, this week or this year; but not the climate of this winter, the weather of this year does not reflect climate. Climate is a long-term aggregation of weather conditions, and often defined and identified by the vegetation and fauna of the region.
— Climate change does not necessarily imply a warmer climate!
While global warming induced climate change may result in a warmer climate, it may also result in a cooler climate of a region. The regional climate may also be wetter or drier, seasonal patterns altered, and any number of climatic variables impacted. If, for example the route of the warm currents of the North Atlantic were changed, it is entirely possible that the British Isles and Europe could experience a mini-ice age, as could the northeastern United States.
While the these three points are a simplistic summary of an extraordinarily complex subject, their proper usage and acceptance is necessary if one is to understand global warming and climate change, and conduct a constructive dialog.
To understand what is going on this winter we need to call upon the science of meteorology (weather) as well as climatology. A climatologist will tell us that global warming will result in weather that is more variable, and extreme than we have previously experienced. Which we are indeed experiencing. A meteorologist will tell us that the recent heavy heavy winter rain and snow storms are the result of a high amount of moisture in the atmosphere. The climatologist will point out that a warmer atmosphere will hold more moisture and warmer water has a higher rate of evaporation – which has indeed be observed for the past several years. In the United States, the prevailing air currents have pushed the warm, moist air farther to the south than “normal” resulting in increased precipitation across the South West and South East, and increased snowfall when the moisture meets the cold air of mid-Atlantic region.
The meteorologists talk about a stronger than usual El Nino circulation pattern causing the circulation shifts, and there is no doubt that we are in the midst of an El Nino cycle. While there is no consensus among climatologists, many feel that the El Nino cycles will become more frequent, stronger and last longer. There is evidence that this is indeed happening. While the link between El Nino cycles and global warming warrants additional research, it should be noted that the conditions observed this winter are in in complete agreement with the long-standing predictions of more variable and extreme weather events resulting from global warming.
It is both important, and necessary, to again repeat that “weather is not climate”. While the observed short-term weather conditions of this winter are entirely consistent with what would be expected from climate change, they cannot be taken as “proof” of long-term climate change. But, for one to claim that the observed weather conditions this winter disprove climate change exhibits a complete lack of knowledge of climate change and the underlying science.
Herein lies the great dilemma. If the world waits to take effective action until the last skeptic/denier is convinced of the reality of climate change we as a civilization, and perhaps as a species, will indeed be toast. We have already passed the point where we can stop climate change within our life times. The carbon dioxide that we have already dumped into the atmosphere will remain there for centuries, causing subsequent global warming until a new equilibrium is reached at some unknown point. The best that we can do is slow the rate of global warming, and do our bit to keep that new equilibrium point as low as possible. No human alive to day will live to see a reversal of climate change, the question is whether or not any living human will live long enough to see the nations of this planet implement the necessary, effective actions.
