There is an old saying that the “solution to pollution is dilution”, which is unfortunately an approach to many sources of pollution in widespread use today. There is also the related saying, “out of sight, out of mind”. As the the gusher of oil from the failed BP well continues unabated into the Gulf of Mexico these two sayings appear to be an apt description of the attempted control of this disaster.
Over the past 6 weeks the size of the surface oil slick has appeared to expand and contract, while the official U.S. Government estimates of the volume of gushing oil have increased from 1,000 barrels (42,000 U.S. gallons) to 5,000 bbl./day to the current estimates 12,000 to 19,000 bbl./day. Some independent estimates are even higher. No matter what the actual volume, it is obvious that a great deal of oil is gushing out of the well. But if the slick on the surface is not drastically increasing where is that oil going? Where else could it be, but between the surface and the bottom of Gulf; and, in fact we are now know that this is the case as at least two vast undersea plumes of oil have been found, one heading in a westerly direction from failed well site, the other stretching in an easterly direction. The dimensions of both plumes are great, and largely unexplored.
Why the oil is remaining below the surface has not been proven at this time, but two possible reasons are readily apparent. The most probable reason for the subsurface oil plumes is the large amounts of highly toxic “dispersants” that BP has applied both at the surface, and at the well head, 5,000 feet below the surface. Dispersants do exactly what the name implies, they break up the oil into smaller droplets which then become dispersed throughout the water column rather than rising to the surface. In other words, the “solution to the oil pollution is dilution” with the added benefit in this case of keeping it “out of sight, out of mind”. If the gushing oil had been rapidly contained, this might have been a successful approach for BP as it could have avoided massive amounts of oil on the beaches and nightly TV reports of oiled birds. However, it has now made the worse environmental disaster to hit the United States even far larger.
At the time of this writing, BP has announced the failure of their “top kill” approach, and is now planning an even riskier approach, and one that the company’s May 29th press release states has “the intention of capturing most of the oil and gas flowing from the well.” BP spokesmen are also cautioning that this “top hat” approach will not capture all of the oil. And on May 30th, President Obama’s energy and climate advisor Carol Browner and BP managing director Bob Dudley both announced that the next (fourth) attempt to control the well will temporarily increase flow, and that “fix” would capture only a majority of flow. Both warned that oil from the well would most likely continue flow into Gulf until August when it is hoped that the relief well will result in a successful stoppage of flow. Meanwhile, BP continues to apply the toxic dispersants to dilute the oil and keep it out of sight. (It most be noted that in theory, dispersing the oil into small droplets should enhance the biological breakdown of the hydrocarbons. However, since BP is applying most of the dispersant at the well head where the water temperature is only 39oF (3.9oC) any biological activity would be greatly reduced. And, the Gulf would still be polluted by the dispersant itself, plus the non-carbon fractions of the gushing crude oil compound.)
We have not yet begun to experience the impacts of the oil that has already flowed into the Gulf, but many of them can be predicted with a high degree of certainty. The extraordinarily rich ecosystem that supported the most valuable commercial fishing industry in the U.S. is doomed. The vast plumes, a mixture of highly toxic oil and dispersants that are spreading through the Gulf will eliminate life from the surface to the ocean floor. The spread of the plumes, and their duration will be greatly increased by any hurricane activity in the Gulf, with the predictions for this season being one of above normal activity. Eventually, some of the suspended hydrocarbons will be biologically broken down, but many toxic elements will remain suspended in the water column. Another fraction of the oil will settle to the sea floor, coating the corals and other substrates that support marine life; and, the final fraction will rise to the surface, possibly as “tar balls”, some of which will eventually wash up on the beaches. Virtually all marine life, fish, turtles, marine mammals, plants and invertebrates that come into contact with the suspended oil will be sickened, or mostly likely die. Entire species such as the imperiled blue-finned Tuna will be heavily impacted. The western north Atlantic bluefin tuna which spawns exclusively in the north-central Gulf is near extinction. This years eggs are larvae, now suspended in the water column along with the oil plumes, are presumed lost.
Both the volume and movement of the suspended oil is largely unknown at this time, but the eastward plume is reaching toward Florida, and oil is entering the Gulf Loop Current which travels over the coral reefs of the Florida Keys continuing to western Cuba before heading up the East Coast of the U.S. It appears likely that oil will reach the beaches of west Florida, and there is great concern about the corals of the Keys. In fact some experts are predicting that the oil will reach the beaches of Cuba. The plumes should be reduced as they travel up the East U.S. Coast and will most likely remain offshore, but tar balls may be washed up on the beaches by storms.
The big question is when will the suspended oil reach the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Texas. The coast of Louisiana is largely composed of marshlands. These marshes are a highly productive nursery for birds, fish and invertebrates such as shrimp and oysters. As it reaches the coast, the oil suspended in the water column will flow unimpeded under the miles of oil booms that were placed to protect the beaches and marshes. When oil reaches the marshes it will be rapidly absorbed by the marsh grasses, killing them and leaving little more than highly erodible mud flats. As the marshes cannot be “cleaned”, there is no saving them once they are oiled. The newly exposed mud flats will be likely be rapidly washed away by storms and wave action. The marshlands of the Mississippi delta were originally formed from the rich soils of interior United States carried, as sediment, by the Mississippi river until deposited at its mouth. This natural process no longer continues since we have “tamed” the Mississippi to reduce flooding and provide reliable navigation. Today’s sediments are sped down a channelized waterway and deposited in the deeper waters off the continental shelf. Thus, there is no longer a source of sediment to rebuild these vital marshes.
Removed from the endangered species list in 2009, the highly photogenic brown pelicans illustrate the importance of the coastal marshlands to wildlife. It is nesting time for the brown pelicans of the Gulf. Pelicans fishing to feed their young may become oiled by diving into oil polluted waters, and/or they may gather oil-tainted fish which will poison their offspring. If oil coated pelicans are captured for cleaning and rehabilitation their chicks, or eggs, are left behind and cannot survive. Since pelicans nest on low-lying ground in the marshes any oil washed into the marshes can coat the eggs or chicks, resulting in their death. And, as pelicans depend upon a healthy Gulf fish population for food, a decline in the Gulf fishery will surely result in a decline among any pelicans who manage to escape the direct impact of oil.
When the oil reaches the famed Gulf beaches, they too will be in peril. While individual “tar balls” can be picked up, any coating of the beaches by the surface oil slicks, or the “dispersed” oil currently suspended in the water column will penetrate the sand and be impossible to remove. Just as the Alaska beaches contain oil only couple of inches below the highly cleaned rock surface over 20 years after the Exxon Valdez disaster, the white sands of the Gulf beaches will be a source of contamination for years to come.
The above narrative may seem overly dire, but the scope of this disaster is impossible to describe, due to the vast geographical area that will be impacted and the complexity and magnitude of the integrated and highly productive effected ecosystems. The overall extent of this disaster will be largely determined by two, currently unknown, variables. The first unanswered question is how much oil has been placed in the aquatic ecosystem and when will the well be brought under control. An answer to the first part of this question is that since BP must pay a fine for each barrel of oil “spilled” it is very obviously in their best interest to keep this number as low as possible (“out of sight, out of mind”) and since BP is the only party that can provide an accurate answer it is highly unlikely that we will ever know.
The second, and very large question is the potential impact of storms during this hurricane season. Storms in Gulf could impede the attempts to control the well and will more thoroughly mix the oil and water suspension of the water column. If the storms approach land they will push the oil/water mixture into the marshes and on the beaches. Because of exceptionally warm water temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, and the rapid disappearance of El Nino conditions in the Pacific, predictions for this season all call for an above normal number of hurricanes. Most forecasts are calling conditions comparable to 1995, the most active hurricane season on record, and when both Rita and Katrina devastated the Gulf region. A 1 – 2 blow, like Rita and Katrina, this year would likely remove much of the protection provided by weakened marshes and have a far greater impact upon New Orleans than experienced in 1995.
The economic impact on the Gulf states, especially Louisiana and Mississippi will be enormous. Coastal land values, tourism, recreational and commercial fishing, and tax revenues will be greatly reduced. The economic costs due to the loss of storm protection provided by coastal marshes could be astronomical. The Gulf, will eventually “recover”, but the process will be slow and it will most likely result in a different Gulf. For example, we cannot know if the shrimping industry will recover. For example, in Alaska’s Prince William Sound the herring fleet is still idle as the herring have not returned after the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Without this foundation species the populations of other species have been reduced to the extent that the Prince William Sound commercial fishing season opens in May, rather than March.
Putting aside the economic costs, the biggest loss will be the unique Gulf ecosystems that were our heritage, our duty to protect, and our obligation to pass on to our children. The oil that is surging into the Gulf is coming from a well on property owned by the citizens of the United States, and the gushing oil belonged to the citizens of the U.S. until we sold BP the right to exploit it in return for royalty payments. We, collectively as citizens of the United States and also of the world, are responsible for this environmental disaster. As we continue to demand more, and cheaper energy derived from fossil fuels the resource has become increasingly depleted, requiring us to drill deeper and dig deeper to extract every drop of oil, or spoonful of coal. Some will say that our insatiable demand for fossil fuels is expanding the limits of technology, others will say that we are exceeding the limits of technology. The very fact that this blow-out occurred should indicate that we have exceeded our technology, and the fact that we have no way of controlling the devastating oil gusher for at least 4 months would appear to confirm that we have indeed exceeded our limits. Our dependence upon fossil fuels is poisoning our air, fouling our land and polluting our oceans. The solution is clear. We owe better to our planet and to our children.
