Progress?

Twelve years ago the nations of the world met in Kyoto, Japan to chart a course of action that would reverse global warming.  187 nations ratified and signed the resulting “Kyoto Protocol”, pledging to reduce their emissions of the four major greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulphur hexaflouride) by varying amounts.

(The United States, responsible for 36% of the baseline 1990 emissions, is the only developed nation which has failed to sign the Protocol.)  The nations of the world are now gathered in Copenhagen with the goal of fashioning a climate change agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.  It is thus timely to review the progress since the last world meeting.

Since Kyoto: 

• Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and the manufacture of cement have increased by 32%
• The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has increased 6.5%
• Global ice masses have melted far more rapidly than predicted, with Greenland losing over 1.5 trillion tons of ice
• Arctic sea ice, especially “old” ice is disappearing at record rates.  This past summer history was made when commercial shipping was able to cross the Arctic from Asia to Europe via the fabled Northeastern passage, without the aid of ice breakers. 
• Sea levels have risen over 1.5 inches
• Global temperatures continue to rise with the past 12 years showing 0.5^oC increase over the 12 years preceding Kyoto.  10 of the warmest years on record have occurred in the past 12 years.
• Methane emissions from melting permafrost are increasing at an alarming rate
• Weather patterns have become more volatile and violent, with increasing typhoons and flooding  in the southern hemisphere, major drought in Africa, Australia and the Western US, with an accompanying increase of record-setting wildfires.
• Over 40 million acres of pine forests, predominately lodgepole pine, have been killed by the mountain pine beetle, whose population is no longer controlled by low winter temperatures. In British Columbia alone, the amount of carbon dioxide released by decaying pine trees is five times greater than the annual emissions of the entire Canadian transportation sector.
• Polar bears have been declared an endangered species due to loss of Arctic ice, in the N. American west warming temperatures are forcing mountain dwelling Pikas to the mountain tops, leaving them no place to retreat.  Amphibians, insects, other wildlife and plants are under stress from changing climate.
• The oceans are becoming more acidic, resulting in the death of vital corals and other invertebrates; while fish are shifting migration patterns and locations, in response to temperature shifts.
• Perhaps, most ominously, the earths lands and oceans are losing their ability to act as carbon dioxide “sinks”  removing about 4% less carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than they did 12 years ago.

Progress is indeed hard to find, in contrast the news appears to be primarily negative with greenhouse gas emissions increasing and climate change  accelerating faster than all but the most dire predictions of 12 years ago.

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Both tables below are from the Wikipedia at:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol.  While not specifically related to progress since Kyoto, the tables can provide some useful insights as 1990 is the accepted, standard baseline year for calculating emission changes. 

Below is a list of the change in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2007 for some countries that are part of the Climate Change Convention as reported by the United Nations. (National greenhouse gas inventory data for the period 1990-2007". UN FCCC. 2009. pp. 16-17.)   “LULUCF” = Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry.

Below is a table of the changes in greenhouse gas emissions of some countries. Global Carbon Project.