There can no longer be any doubt about a changing climate. Our climate is changing now and it is too late stop it, or perhaps even significantly slow it down. Our only choice is to finally recognize the reality of climate change, and learn to live with a climate that differs from the one in which we, and the ecosystems upon which we depend, evolved.
The evidence is all around us. No matter where on this globe you live, your region, or one nearby, has been suffering from long-term weather that is either drier, wetter, colder, or warmer than normal. The gentle 3-day rains of 50 years ago have been replaced by heavy downpours. June, 2011, was the 316th consecutive month with a global temperature (land and sea) above the 20th century average(1). While weather is not climate, violent and extreme weather are indeed characteristics of climate change and are readily explained by basic laws of physics to be the direct consequence of a warming planet.
The seasons are changing, The flowing times of many plants are changing, animal migrations and distributions are changing, and species are becoming extinct at an alarming rate.
Around the globe, ice is rapidly melting. The Artic ice is melting so rapidly that commercial shipping is now using the Northwest Passage Polar region to move cargo between Asia and Europe during newly ice-free summer periods. The spectacular Glacier National Park, in northern Montana, U.S., contained 150 glaciers in 1850. There are now only 25 glaciers left in the park, and these are predicted to melt within the next 10 – 20 years(2) leaving a national park dedicated to glaciers with none.
These, and many more, signs of climate change are direct observations. They are not predictions, calculations, or speculation; they are observed facts with direct and immediate impact upon individuals and communities, and long-term economic and social consequences for the world’s societies.
By in large our leaders and governments have been increasingly ignoring climate change, or even denying it. This is partially due to concerns about the global economies, but also due to political philosophies. Unfortunately, the number of “climate deniers” in the United States national and state governments was greatly increased by the latest elections. Many of these leaders have used their beliefs that climate change is a hoax perpetuated by those wishing to increase taxes and pass laws stifling economic growth and reduce individual rights to justify their policy positions. The United States, and many other nations, did not act when we had the opportunity, nor did the nations of the world agree to a meaningful cooperative treaty during the IPCC conferences. Now it is too late.
In apparent response to the growing social conservative movement in the U.S. the number of Americans who are either “concerned” or “alarmed” by climate change has decreased from 51% in November of 2008 to 39% in May, 2011 according to the latest “Six Americas” update(3). Of even greater concern is the climate deniers are encouraging an anti-science sentiment that threatens science education and the future supply of scientists and engineers that will be essential for addressing the impacts of climate change.
What does the future hold? It seems reasonable to assume that the global economic downturn will initially result in decreased energy consumption and the corresponding emission of greenhouse gases. But, in the longer term there will most likely be an increased consumption of cheaper, dirtier fuels, such as wood and coal, primarily as a result of population growth in the developing nations and the reluctance of business to invest in cleaner energy sources as the economy improves. Any meaningful legislation will be delayed, probably for decades, as social conservatives retain political power and influence public opinion.
A continuation of climate change is far less speculative than the economic and political future as many of the physical processes causing climate change have a built-in momentum and a changing climate results in self-reinforcing biological and physical “feedback” feed back processes(4).
It is possible that global economic recession might cause a temporary slowing in the rate of climate change. But in the mid- to long-term the Earth’s climate will continue to change at an increasing rate. How we adapt to a new, and constantly changing climate is up to us.
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1. National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center. State of the Climate, Global Analysis, June 2001. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/(viewed August 5, 2001)
2. Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior. Retreat of glaciers in Glacier National Park. http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/glacier_retreat.htm (viewed August 6, 2011)
3. Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., & Smith, N. (2011) Global Warming’s Six Americas, May 2011. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/SixAmericasMay2011.pdf
4. AreWeToast.com, System Feedback and Tipping Points. http://arewetoast.com/system-feedback-and-tipping-points.html
