NASA recently reported that the first seven months of this year were the warmest on record while the just released U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)  2009 State of the Climate Report  using data combined from a number of sources shows that 2009 was the warmest on record, the first decade of the 21st Century was the warmest on record, as in turn were the decades of the 1980’s and the 1990’s. 

While the recent extreme weather is entirely consistent with climate change, short-term weather is not climate.  However the 30 years of constantly increasing global temperature is a pretty strong statement about our changing climate.  It is increasingly apparent that climate change is not a topic for future speculation, but rather a current reality.  While no single weather event can be said to be caused by climate change, the variable and extreme weather that we are now observing is the type and pattern of weather long predicted by climate change science.  If fact, the oft-maligned 2007 IPCC reports described regional weather patterns that perfectly match the events mentioned above. 

It is too late to debate whether or not climate change is real, or think of it as something that may happen in the future.  Climate change is real, and it is happening now.  It is no longer a question of how we can prevent climate change, but rather a question of how can we best adapt and will we take the steps necessary to slow the rate of climate change for future generations.  A recent report from the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America demonstrates that climate change will be irreversible for at least 1,000 years after a complete elimination of CO₂ emissions and that the effects of climate change will be greater as the CO₂ level increases.  Thus it is clear that the longer we fail to act, the more dire the consequences.  And the sad reality is that we are no closer to acting on climate change than we were 100 years ago.  The United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009 in Copenhagen was a total fiasco, ending without the widely anticipated binding agreements.  As the international Bonn meeting in preparation for the 2010 conference in Cancun ended in disarray, there is no reason to hope that the issues that could not be resolved in Copenhagen will be resolved in Cancun one year later.  And displaying a total lack of leadership the U.S. Senate has failed to even consider climate change. 

As we continue to dump greenhouse gases, and other pollutants, into the atmosphere climate change will continue to gain momentum.  Floods, drought, fire, blizzards, extreme hot and cold temperatures, and violent storms will increase.  Species extinctions, crop failures, water shortages, non-productive oceans,  and storm damage will add to human misery, and extract an increasing economic cost.

Welcome to the new normal. 

  — Global warming causes climate change!

Heat is energy.  The increase of the atmospheric greenhouse effect by the emission of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane and other gases; and,  the direct addition of heat due to energy consumption increases the thermal content and energy of the planet.   The increased thermal directly alters both the patterns and intensity of  air currents in the atmosphere and the ocean currents.

  — Weather is not climate!

Weather is a short-term, local condition, while climate is a long-term, regional descriptor.  Just as we properly speak of the weather today, this week or this year; but not the climate of this winter, the weather of this year does not reflect climate.  Climate is a long-term aggregation of weather conditions, and often defined and identified by the vegetation and fauna of the region. 

  — Climate change does not necessarily imply a warmer climate!

While global warming induced climate change may result in a warmer climate, it may also result in a cooler climate of a region.  The regional climate may also be wetter or drier, seasonal patterns altered,  and any number of climatic variables impacted.  If, for example the route of the warm currents of the North Atlantic were changed, it is entirely possible that the British Isles and Europe could experience a mini-ice age, as could the northeastern United States. 

While the these three points are a simplistic summary of an extraordinarily complex subject, their proper usage and acceptance is necessary if one is to understand global warming and climate change, and conduct a constructive dialog.

To understand what is going on this winter we need to call upon the science of meteorology (weather) as well as climatology.  A climatologist will tell us that global warming will result in weather that is more variable, and extreme than we have previously experienced.  Which we are indeed experiencing.   A meteorologist will tell us that the recent heavy heavy winter rain and snow storms are the result of a high amount of moisture in the atmosphere.  The climatologist will point out that a warmer atmosphere will hold more moisture and warmer water has a higher rate of evaporation – which has indeed be observed for the past several years.  In the United States, the prevailing air currents have pushed the warm, moist air farther to the south than “normal” resulting in increased precipitation across the South West and South East, and increased snowfall when the moisture meets the cold air of mid-Atlantic region. 

The meteorologists talk about a stronger than usual El Nino circulation pattern causing the circulation shifts, and there is no doubt that we are in the midst of an El Nino cycle.  While there is no consensus among climatologists, many feel that the El Nino cycles will become more frequent, stronger and last longer.  There is evidence that this is indeed happening.  While the link between El Nino cycles and global warming warrants additional research, it should be noted that the conditions observed this winter are in in complete agreement with the long-standing predictions of more variable and extreme weather events resulting from global warming.

It is both important, and necessary, to again repeat that “weather is not climate”.  While the observed short-term weather conditions of this winter are entirely consistent with what would be expected from climate change, they cannot be taken as “proof” of long-term climate change.  But, for one to claim that the observed weather conditions this winter disprove climate change exhibits a complete lack of knowledge of climate change and the underlying science.

Herein lies the great dilemma.  If the world waits to take effective action until the last skeptic/denier is convinced of the reality of climate change we as a civilization, and perhaps as a species, will indeed be toast.  We have already passed the point where we can stop climate change within our life times.  The carbon dioxide that we have already dumped into the atmosphere will remain there for centuries, causing subsequent global warming until a new equilibrium is reached at some unknown point.  The best that we can do is slow the rate of global warming, and do our bit to keep that new equilibrium point as low as possible.  No human alive to day will live to see a reversal of climate change, the question is whether or not any living human will live long enough to see the nations of this planet implement the necessary, effective actions.

"Global Warming" and "Climate Change" are two terms that are often, and erroneously, used interchangeably.  While it is important to know the difference between these two terms, we must also know how they interact.

Global warming  is exactly what the term implies, a warming of  Earth.  It is the warming of Earths' land, water and atmosphere, and is measured by network of temperature observations at scattered around the globe.  Global warming is real, and is readily observed from the temperature measurements which show that the surface of the Earth increased steadily through the last century, with a total increase of approximately 0.75^oC, or 1.33^oF during the past 100 years.  This data is so overwhelming that it has been endorsed by virtually all scientific societies and national Academies of Science throughout the world.

This definition immediately raises two questions:

• “Can’t the observed warming be natural variability?” Certainly natural variability has always been present, but in the past changes of this magnitude have occurred over thousands, or millions, of years.  There is no known natural explanation for such a rapid temperature increase.  Secondly, the Earth should actually be in a cooling phase as the Earth is in that part of its elliptical orbit around the sun where it is moving away from the sun, not closer.
• “How can such a small change make any difference?”  The answer to this question is found in high school physics.  Heat is energy and is measured by temperature, therefore if the temperature of the planet increases, the planet contains more energy.  And in accord with the First Law of Thermodynamics energy and matter cannot be created or destroyed, but merely transformed in nature. 

Thus the simplest description of “global warming” is the addition of energy to the planet.

Having defined global warming as the addition of energy to the planet, we can now view Climate Change as a consequence of that added energy.  The addition of energy to the system has a number of effects upon the Earths’ systems, including the alteration of thermal gradients between the polar and equatorial regions on the planet. These thermal gradients are a primary driver of the air currents, such as the jet streams, and the ocean currents; which in turn are determinants of the Earths’ climatic patterns.  A planet with increased energy also exhibits greater volatility, or variability, in its weather.

But, what is “weather” and how does it differ from “climate”?  The answer is both duration and scale.   Weather is what we experience today, this year, this decade.  Weather is short-term.  Only when we average weather conditions over a long-term is it climate.  There is no universally accepted agreement on how long “long-term” should be before weather becomes climate, but the generally accepted minimum is 30 years.   Weather is also a local feature, and at times may be quite different just a short distance away, while climate is a regional feature, shared by many localities. 

It should also be noted that since the climate of a region is largely determined by large-scale air and ocean currents, climate change may result in the climate of a region becoming either warmer or cooler, wetter or drier, due to shifts in the air and ocean currents.  For example, if melting of arctic ice causes a shift of the gulf stream,  the eastern U.S. and western Europe may experience a much cooler climate, as has happened in the past. 

“Global warming”, “climate change”, “weather”, and “climate” – four terms describing four distinctly different, but related, parameters.  Proper usage of these four terms is essential for meaningful communication and for the formulation of effective public policy necessary to address climate change.

On November 14, 2006 the Center for Biological Diversity, and other parties, filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court against the Bush Administration charging that it had failed to meet the requirement of the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to provide Congress with an revised Research Plan every 3 years and a "Scientific Assessment" every 4 years.

   The initial Scientific Assessment was submitted by the Administration to Congress on October 21, 2000, but with distribution and other restrictions.  While the 2000 submission triggered the requirement for the next Scientific Assessment to be submitted to Congress in November of 2004 no Assessment was submitted, and in April, 2005 the General Accounting Office issued a report concluding that the Administration had not meet the requirements of the Act and was not on track to do so.

In August, 2007 U.S. District Judge Saundra Brown Armstrong ruled that the facts of the case were not in dispute, and established firm deadlines for the publication of the updated Research Plan (March 1, 2008)  and the overdue submission of the  Scientific Assessment (May 31, 2008).

In compliance with the Court order, on May 29th, 2008, the Executive Office of the President of the United States released the "Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States" (http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific-assessment/) and a companion "Summary and Findings"(http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific-assessment/6-SA-FAQ-LO-RES.pdf).   The Assessment is actually a synthesis of 16 federal government research programs, only one of which has been published to date, and is a clear acceptance of human-caused Climate Change and comprehensive overview of substantial impacts of Climate Change upon the United States. 

The purpose of the Global Change Research Act of 1990 was to: "provide for the development and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".  As the first, publicly available,  official government, comprehensive overview of Climate Change in the United States the 261 page  2008 "Scientific Assessment" is, per sea,  a significant document.  Additionally as the one the first major products of the fledgling  U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a cooperative research program by 13 federal agencies, the Assessment provides a thorough scientific review and  foundation for sound policy-making.  Additionally, the Assessment provides an outstanding public education tool.  It can be anticipated that future publications from the CCSP will build upon this foundation as additional research is conducted and the findings published. 

The excerpted material below is a direct quote from the "Summary and Findings" brochure (http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific-assessment/6-SA-FAQ-LO-RES.pdf).  

"WHAT ARE THE MAJOR IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE UNITED STATES?

It is very likely that temperature increases, increasing carbon dioxide levels, and altered patterns of precipitation are already affecting U.S. water resources, agriculture, land resources, biodiversity, and human health, among other things. And it is very likely that climate change will continue to have significant effects on these resources over the next few decades and beyond. A very brief summary of the key findings of climate impacts on the United States follows.

The Natural Environment

Ecosystems provide society with a number of goods (e.g., food, fiber, fuel, pharmaceutical products) and services (e.g., cycling of water and nutrients, removal of waste products, sustaining biological diversity) and are essential to human health and well- being:

• The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land-use change, pollution).

• In North America, warming has generally resulted in and is expected to continue to result in shifts of species ranges poleward and to higher altitudes.

Agriculture

The many U.S. crops and livestock (valued at about $200 billion in 2002) are strongly affected by climate:

• The marketable yield of many horticultural crops (e.g., tomatoes, onions, and fruits) is very likely to be more sensitive to climate change than grain and oilseed crops.

• Higher temperatures will very likely reduce livestock production during the summer season, but these losses will very likely be partially offset by warmer temperatures during the winter season.

Water

Although U.S. water management practices are generally quite advanced, particularly in the West, the reliance on past conditions as the foundation for current and future planning and practice will no longer be tenable as climate change and variability increasingly create conditions that are well outside of historical parameters, eroding predictability:

• Stream temperatures are likely to increase as the climate warms and are very likely to have effects on aquatic ecosystems and water quality.

• Where earlier snowmelt peaks and reduced low flows in the summer and fall have already been detected, continuing shifts in this direction are very likely and may substantially affect the performance of reservoir systems.

Population and Society

While it may appear that industrialized countries like the United States are well equipped to cope with gradual climate change at a national level, at a local level there may be substantial variability in climate effects and capacities to adapt; on the other hand, some U.S. communities may find opportunities in climate change:

• Population growth is generally shifting toward areas (e.g., coastal regions) more likely to be vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

• For small islands, particularly in the Pacific, some studies suggest that sea-level rise could reduce island size, raising concerns for parts of Hawaii and other U.S. territories.

• Wildfires have increased in extent and severity in recent years and are very likely to intensify in a warmer future. At the same time, the population has been expanding into fire-prone areas.

Health

Climate variability and change can affect health through the effects of temperature changes on the body. Climate change can also make it possible for animal-, water-, and food-borne diseases to spread or emerge in areas where they had been limited or had not existed, or it can make it possible for such diseases to disappear by making areas less hospitable to the disease carrier or pathogen:

• An increased frequency and severity of heat waves is expected, leading to more illness and death, particularly among the young, elderly, frail, and poor.

• Increases in extreme weather (e.g., storms, flooding) and accompanying events (e.g., wildfire resulting from prolonged drought) may lead to increases in deaths, injuries, infectious diseases, interruptions of medical care for chronic disease treatment, and stress-related disorders and other adverse effects associated with social disruption and migration.

Energy

To date, most discussions on energy and climate change have focused on mitigating human effects on climate. However, along with this role as a driver of climate change, the energy sector will be subject to the effects of climate change:

• Direct impacts from increased intensity of extreme weather events.

• Reduced water supplies in regions dependent on water resources for hydropower and/or thermal power plant cooling.

• Positive or negative impacts on production of biomass, wind power, or solar energy where climate conditions change.

Transportation

Increasing global temperatures, rising sea levels, and changing weather patterns pose significant challenges to the Nation’s roads, airports, railways, transit systems, and ports. The transportation network is vital to the U.S. economy and quality of life:

• Increasing frequency, intensity, or duration of heat spells could cause railroad tracks to buckle or kink and could affect roads through softening and traffic-related rutting.

• Coastal and riverine flooding and landslides are very likely to cause negative impacts on roads, rails, and ports.

• Warmer or less snowy winters are likely to improve ground and air transportation reliability, and decrease the need for winter road maintenance. However, more intense winter storms could increase risks for traveler safety and require increased localized snow removal. "

To over-simplify the process, in computer modeling the basic postulates are reduced to mathematical equations, woven together in a manner thought to resemble the workings of the natural system, and then tested against a set of real, observed data. The equations are then adjusted and the model re-run to obtain a better fit between the observed data and that predicted by the model. This process of testing, refining the model, and retesting is often referred to as “calibration”, and continues until the model is either completely rejected, or provides answers that are in agreement with the observed data used in the test. At this point, the model is flipped around and used to predict the future, on the basic premise that if it can predict the known past with a high degree of accuracy, it has some value for predicting the unknown future. In the real world, the entire process is begun anew and repeated as new scientific data becomes available. Computer models should never be assumed to be the ultimate, final answer; rather they can be a very useful predictive tool, outlining and ranking probable outcomes, and pointing the way for future research.

Computer models have been invaluable as we begin to understand GCC, and have generally provided excellent, accurate predictions, with the exception of the time element. Scarcely a day goes by that the newspapers do not report that some predicted event is occurring at a far faster rate than the models predicted. This, in itself is extraordinarily useful information as it confirms that GCC is occurring at a rate that is far faster than anything we have experienced in the past. And secondly, it tells us to pay extra attention to the science, as it is tending to be too conservative and under-estimating, rather than over-estimating climate change.